Trump’s Venezuela Gambit: Drug War Claims and the Fall of Nicolás Maduro

Donald Trump’s announcement that US forces had “captured” Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro early on Saturday morning marked a stunning escalation in a confrontation that has been building for months and, in many ways, years.

Donald Trump's attack on Venezuela

The operation, revealed by Mr Trump on his Truth Social platform, followed a prolonged period of rising tension between Washington and Caracas, driven by allegations of drug trafficking, narco-terrorism and systematic attacks on democratic institutions by the Maduro government.

While the claim of Mr Maduro’s capture has shocked parts of the international community, the signs of an impending showdown had been visible for some time.

A raid in the dead of night

Reports of explosions and low-flying aircraft over Caracas in the early hours of Saturday were soon followed by Mr Trump’s declaration that the US had carried out a “large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader”, in conjunction with US law enforcement agencies.

Although full details of the operation remain unclear, early accounts suggest US air strikes targeted military installations in the Venezuelan capital, as well as sites in the neighbouring states of Miranda, Aragua and La Guaira.

US officials later told American media that the raid to seize Mr Maduro was conducted by Delta Force — the US Army’s elite special operations unit typically reserved for the most sensitive and high-risk missions. According to Mr Trump, the Venezuelan leader was captured and “flown out of the country”, though no information has been released about his destination.

There were reportedly no US casualties, but Venezuelan authorities have not confirmed whether local forces or civilians were killed or injured during the strikes.

The reference to US law enforcement involvement has fuelled speculation that Mr Maduro may be transferred to the United States to face longstanding charges of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. He was indicted in New York in 2020, accused of conspiring to “flood” the US with cocaine — charges he has always denied.

A leader who expected the knock

Despite his public bravado, Mr Maduro appears to have anticipated the possibility of a US operation. Reports suggest that in recent months he had been frequently changing his sleeping locations, rotating mobile phones and tightening his inner security circle.

According to the New York Times, Mr Maduro expanded the role of Cuban bodyguards and counter-intelligence officers, amid fears that Venezuelan officials — under mounting international pressure — might betray him.

In a further sign of anxiety behind the scenes, Mr Maduro reportedly sought back-channel contact with the Trump administration in the days before the attack, floating cooperation on drug trafficking and even revisiting proposals for a managed exit from power. A plan reportedly offered last October would have seen him step down in three years, but it was rejected by the White House.

Drugs, democracy and a decade of hostility

The roots of the crisis stretch back well beyond the past year. Mr Maduro came to power in 2013 after the death of socialist leader Hugo Chávez and has since presided over years of economic collapse, political unrest and mass emigration.

During Mr Trump’s first presidency, the US imposed sweeping sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry, citing a growing humanitarian crisis. In 2018, Mr Trump dismissed Mr Maduro’s re-election as a “sham”, a view shared by many international observers after opposition candidates were barred from running.

History repeated itself in 2024 when Mr Maduro secured another term amid claims of voter suppression and electoral manipulation. Mr Trump has consistently argued that the Venezuelan government systematically undermines democracy while clinging to power illegitimately.

Drug trafficking has become the central pillar of the Trump administration’s case against Caracas. During his 2024 election campaign, Mr Trump pledged to crack down on fentanyl and other illicit drugs entering the US, and once back in office, he turned his attention sharply towards Venezuela.

In March last year, the administration designated the Tren de Aragua gang as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, alleging it had infiltrated the US. Mr Maduro was also accused of leading the so-called Cártel de los Soles — a network of military and political figures allegedly using narcotics as a weapon against the US.

Washington has cited these claims to justify a series of military strikes on suspected drug-smuggling vessels. Since September, at least 35 air strikes have been carried out in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing at least 115 people, according to US military figures.

A massive military build-up

The capture of Mr Maduro came after a significant US military build-up in the region — the largest since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. In October, Mr Trump authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela, and a month later the USS Gerald R Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, arrived with its strike group and around 15,000 personnel.

Seven additional warships and a nuclear submarine were also deployed.

Mr Maduro responded with public calls for peace while mobilising around 200,000 Venezuelan troops and urging civilian militias to prepare for a foreign attack. Despite the rhetoric, US operations continued to intensify.

On December 30, a drone strike targeted what Mr Trump described as a drug cartel docking facility — the first acknowledged US land operation inside Venezuela. Within days, that escalation culminated in the raid that allegedly removed the country’s president from power.

What happens next — both for Mr Maduro and for Venezuela — remains uncertain. But the dramatic operation marks a decisive and dangerous new chapter in US-Venezuelan relations.